Crypto news and market trends | Bitpanda Weekly Wrap #13

Key price movements

BTC: +1.1%, €92,167
ETH: +1.6%, €2,229
S\&P 500: +0.21%
Euro Stoxx 50: -0.53%

Prices as of 10am, 20 June 2025

This week has been one of high tension but limited action in financial markets.

It was meant to be a quiet week - with the most exciting news on the calendar being a series of central bank announcements on interest rates. What we got instead was growing concern that the US might be about to become more directly involved in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, and more tariff uncertainty.

In this week’s wrap, we’re going to zoom out and take a broader look at oil, AI, and the status of the US dollar as the globe’s reserve currency. Before we get into that, let’s have a quick look at major asset prices.

Bitcoin has risen again this week and continues to hold a comfortable position over the $105k mark, as investors weigh up positive industry news against geopolitical concerns. It’s a similar story across the wider crypto sector, with most major tokens showing signs of a rally on Friday morning.

In the world of stocks, the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady (with 2 future cuts still expected this year) had no major impact on prices. With US markets closed on Thursday for Juneteenth, there might be more volatility than usual on Friday as traders catch up on announcements before the weekend.

European stocks were more of a mixed bag. While Germany’s DAX index has seen major returns this year (up 18%) and is on track to deliver its best H1 since 2007, France’s CAC 40 (up 4.1%) has struggled to inspire investors. While both had recent elections, the differences in policy since those elections have created a stark difference in market confidence.

Commodities continue to do well, unsurprisingly. We’ll cover oil in more detail below, but the ECB’s annual currency assessment was published Wednesday, and found that bullion made up about 20% of the global official reserves at the end of 2024. This moves it into second place behind the dollar, overtaking the Euro as the world’s 2nd most popular reserve currency.

Explore the latest crypto prices, stock prices, and market trends.

Strait talk: conflict, crude, and currency

*TL;DR: Oil prices and market volatility are set to rise, and the dominance of the US dollar might be set to fall.*

The conflict between Israel and Iran is entering its seventh day at the time of publication, and we want to take a closer look at three of the major impacts it’s having on global markets.

The first is oil. The main factor here is the risk of disruption to oil exports from the Middle East and disruption to shipping more broadly because of the significance of the Strait of Hormuz. The strait links the Persian Gulf to the open ocean, and roughly 20% of the world’s oil travels through it from the Middle East to the global market. While there has been no disruption yet, the cost of shipping crude from the Middle East to China is more than 50% higher since the attacks began. More uncertainty, or further escalation, could push shipping prices higher and, as a result, see the price of crude oil surge. The knock-on effects for inflation across the world would be significant.

The risk of escalation is the second major concern. Neither Israel nor Iran appears willing to back down from the conflict, and President Trump has ramped up his rhetoric when it comes to potential direct US involvement. Whatever the reasons or rationale, US involvement in a Middle Eastern conflict is not something that markets had priced in a week ago. While the response from investors so far has been calm, an unexpected shock could cause significant volatility.

This neatly follows onto the final impact we’re looking at this week: the US’ global reputation. The world has used the dollar as its reserve currency since 1944, but its popularity is on the decline. Since Trump took office, it’s down more than 10% against the Euro, Pound and Swiss franc, and is down against every single major currency in the world. Realistically, there isn’t a good single alternative, but central bank reserve managers are diversifying across multiple currencies. If the dollar continues to fall and the US is forced to sell bonds at higher rates, it could create a cycle that would make its deficit difficult to finance.

We’ve said it many times, but markets do not like uncertainty, and there’s plenty of that going around at the moment.

Putting a price on intelligence

*TL;DR: AI ambitions are sky-high, and so are the invoices.*

Building cutting-edge AI doesn’t just take computer chips, data, and talent; it takes billions. This week, we learnt that Elon Musk’s xAI is reportedly burning through $1 billion a month and expects to spend $13 billion in 2025 alone. Even with $14 billion raised since launch, xAI is already in the market for more and is chasing another $10 billion in equity and debt just to keep pace with its growth ambitions.

They are not the only ones…The competition to build smarter, faster, more human-like models has turned into a capital arms race, where the price of infrastructure alone demands a lot of capital. Carlyle Group Inc. estimates that over $1.8 trillion will be deployed by 2030, and the only way to keep up is by raising and spending - fast. Currently, banks and VCs are happy to supply the funding, and the bet is that all this outlay will pay off by the end of the decade. Until then? Expect fundraising, debt deals, and high costs to remain the price of admission.

Crypto comings and goings

*TL;DR: GENIUS Act passes, laying the groundwork for mainstream stablecoin adoption.*

On Wednesday, the US Senate passed the GENIUS Act, a landmark bipartisan bill that could finally give dollar-pegged digital tokens regulatory clarity. Circle shares surged nearly 34%, Coinbase jumped 16%, and Robinhood added 4.5%, as markets priced in what could be a major step toward mainstream adoption.

The bill lays out clear rules for how stablecoins are issued, backed, and reported, requiring reserves in liquid assets like dollars and short-term Treasuries, with monthly public disclosures. That kind of transparency could unlock new confidence from both users and institutions, and will likely see stablecoins take on an even more significant role in the way we move money. The upside for infrastructure players and the benefits for individuals are clear.

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