Bitpanda Pro • 5 min read
By Bitpanda Pro
Bitcoin closed its worst quarter in a decade
Crypto Fear & Greed Index improves, but still in the extreme fear zone
Altcoins trade in range with positive momentum
The last seven days have seen choppy price action in the cryptocurrency market as the first week of July ended just under €900 billion of its total market cap. A choppy market is where the price makes little overall progress up or down but instead oscillates back and forth, indicating buyers and sellers are balanced. This typically occurs after sharp movement downwards or even upwards because participants are awaiting a catalyst which would trigger the next leg.
Bitcoin closed its worst quarter in a decade as the world's largest cryptocurrency lost roughly 54% of its value in the second quarter of 2022. This marked the cryptocurrency's worst quarter in 11 years. For comparison, Bitcoin declined about 50% during the first quarter of 2018 in the last major price crash.
The June monthly candle close is important because it’s also the end of the quarter and provides guidance for the second half of the year. The last days of trading in June were very volatile as BTC’s price was trying to float above the previous all-time high from the bull cycle of 2017-2018. The bulls somehow managed to lift the price above that level at the beginning of July and Bitcoin is currently still trading above the previous all-time high of €19,000.
The lower time frame charts show the choppy-ranging market, where the price of Bitcoin is trading above the previous low and maintaining the higher high, higher low chart pattern. The price managed to capture the 100-day moving average and trades above the crucial €19,150 support level. After a close above the support level, Bitcoin’s price remained in a positive zone and most of the altcoins followed.
Having spent a few weeks in the capitulation territory, Bitcoin’s price fluctuation continues to generate extreme fear in the market. However, there has been a slight sentiment improvement in the last week, as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has reached 18 points on the scale, up from 13 in the week before. Historically, the more the retail investors express their pessimism and fear toward an investment, the more likely the investment is to be profitable over the following weeks and months as buying into extreme lows yields better results. While this is not a timing indicator, it can provide contrarian-based trading approaches.
Altcoins were also trading in range as most assets followed Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s dominance, the metric that gauges its share relative to that of the entire market, remained roughly the same around the 42.5% level. This means that altcoins failed to gain any strength towards the most significant cryptocurrency.
Ethereum's June monthly candle close was one of the worst in crypto history with an over 40% loss. The price is slowly moving higher towards €1,200 after touching a low of €830 on June 16. The price action shows a clear trend of higher highs, and higher lows, indicating the bulls are accumulating coins every weekday.
The price is now trading above €1,100 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. The next major resistance level is at €1,220, followed by €1,300. On the downside, the major support zone is at €950, which is currently strongly supported.
ADA continues to move in a downtrend on a higher time frame, but shows some positive signs on lower time frames. The weak volumes point towards low accumulation at recent levels which contributed to failed larger upside moves. Momentum indicators are still in the bearish zone and need to pick up in order to flip the trend around. The price made a low at €0.37 and is now trading around the €0.45 level.
SOL is moving bullishly since retesting the support trendline at the €30 level. The bulls are trying to push the price up to the previous range high of €40. Momentum indicators are pointing upward and, so far, the price has not made a lower low, with the critical support at €25 while the upper head resistance remains at the €40 level.
It has been more than two weeks since AVAX broke out of its falling wedge pattern. Buyers remained strong despite some strong selling days, resulting in an upside price swing. Certain momentum indicators like the MACD and RSI are moving upwards slightly, building bullish momentum.
With an 85% price crash from the all-time high at €48, Polkadot is currently trading just shy of the €7 level. The price is trading above the crucial support level of €6 - levels from the end of 2020. On the lower time frame, the price moves inside of the falling wedge formation which is typically a bullish price pattern. A positive breakout could stop the downtrend which has been in place for nine months, but this will be determined by overall sentiment in the crypto space and by Bitcoin’s movement which will guide the market.
Have you been following Bitcoin’s price development or the smaller caps’ formations and want to act on the market moves on the go? Make sure you trade using our Bitpanda Pro iOS and Android apps. For a convenient trading experience from your computer, you can also rely on the traditional Bitpanda Pro crypto exchange.
Disclaimer This content is for informational purposes only and is not to be taken as financial advice. We highly recommend taking the time to do the necessary research before making any investment. Be aware that past performance is no indication of future results.
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